The Big Kahuna Toboggan

Finished restoring the Big Kahuna toboggan today: 3 coats of polyurethane all over and a layer of wax on the bottom should slice right down the hill. I'd suggest steam or fire, but that would imply friction of some sort. Rebuilt some of the wooden pieces and got new "false sense of security" rope, too.

Praying for some real snow now ...

Camping at Ricker Pond

We just returned from a fine week at Ricker Pond State Park in eastern Vermont. We did many of our normal activities (swimming, kayaking, biking, hiking), and added a couple new ones - swimming in a swimming hole nearby and bringing friends along. The swimming hole was a stream that flows from Groton Lake into Ricker Pond. James brought his friend Julian. And our family friend Alice joined us halfway through.


Click on the slideshow to see specific pictures and their captions.

This was also our first time to get a double campsite ... a cabin where the ladies slept and a tent for the guys next door.

I got new appreciation for how nice we have it. About a third of the campers at the park last week were from out of state. One fellow from Ontario that I spoke with says he keeps coming back to Ricker Pond because he likes the hills and mountains (which are lacking in his flat part of Ontario).

Camping with the Boy Scouts

The men folk in our McLaughlin tribe joined with some other Webelos Cub Scouts in our pack to go to the Boy Scout camporee over the weekend here in Vermont. Lots of cool stories, and you can view the pics at our May 2010 Camporee album.

First, an important note about Mother's Day: We got permission from Mom before going camping on Mother's Day weekend, and we got home in time to treat Laura to some great adoration and abject "we're not worthy" praise.

From May 2010 Camporee

Stories about the Camporee:

1. Our boys served as color guard on Saturday morning.
   We had offered to help the big Boy Scouts raise the flag sometime, but none of them volunteered, so we had to show them how it's done. In the album, you can see a pic of our four Webelos surrounded by the hulking teenagers. Reminds me of the Hobbits in Lord of the Rings. The boys did a great job.
2. Lots of fun activities: Our guys especially seemed to like geocaching (using a hand-held GPS to find treasure) and the 10-mile bike ride (never knew they could do that before!). They weren't old enough to throw tomahawks (roped off range with large targets), but they enjoyed watching it. Next year, they'll cross over and officially qualify for this.
3. Team building: The Cub Scouts at camp had some Cubs only activities, and our guys did one of them: The "bridge building" activity. The idea was that a section of grass was a "raging river" that you had to cross using only the stones in the river (grass) and two planks of wood. You started out with ten points, but lost points if your plank dipped into the "water" or if someone lost their balance and "fell in." Turns out, our guys have a lot to learn about teamwork and accepting ownership for the parts they can help with. Laura and I were discussing this later, and she brought up an interesting point. The four boys were essentially two sets of twins. Laura and I found ourselves wondering how that dynamic with all its sibling rivalries might have prevented them from selecting and following team leadership ... which was one of the problems that led to other problems.
4. Adverse weather: This would've qualified as "winter camping" if the temperature had been a few degrees cooler. With the wet grass, we might have actually been warmer overall if it had been February. Still, we had the pleasure that comes from overcoming an obstacle like this. Saturday night turned into a major wind storm. We knew it was coming and prepared, but it was more intense than predicted. At bed time as our tent was billowing around us, James said that now he knows what it's like to be inside a lung. By morning, he was saying that he felt like the tent was digesting us. The wind would just about lay our tent flat on top of us. I was waking up all night as the tent would do this, but it never blew over! The big problem came when I heard a crashing outside and just knew that our own little 12x12' portable shelter had finally blown over. It sounded something like a piano being dropped from a third-story window, then rolling across the field. Turns out, that the little Cub Scouts' shelter withstood the wind. Instead, a Boy Scout shelter across the lane had come loose and blown through our camp. It demolished our shelter along the way before getting pinned to some trees. We are very grateful that no one was hurt!

Next camporee is in October!

So What If Jesus Rose from the Dead?

We went to a Saturday night Easter worship service just now, and it was outstanding! The main message was to answer the question, "So What?" Meaning, if you're one of the 80% of Americans who believe that Jesus really did rise from the dead, well, so what? What does that mean to me and how does it affect me? For good? For bad? For whatever?

You know, that's an important question to ask. We know that a high percentage of people that join us for worship are people with questions like that. On Easter, they could number close to 50% in our particular church.

Our church normally has five worship times. This week, we move location to the college gymnasium and do it all in two huge meetings. Wow, the energy was high! It reminded me of being in a choir where you start off with your own sections (maybe your school's section), and there are other sections nearby learning the same pieces ... and then you all come together for this huge sound. I wonder if it'll be like that in Heaven one day, with zillions of us sinners singing fortissimo about how Jesus fixed all our broken lives!

A couple other highlights of the evening: It was warm in the gym. If you happen to go to the Sunday morning service and read this before going: Bring water. (They do have water and other refreshments there, too.) And I never thought of it this way before, but yeah, the way we sing our songs is sorta like a "large group karaoke," I guess. (That's an example of how our pastor explained some things in our worship service to people visiting for the first time and feeling a little bit of vu-ja-day - the feeling like you've never seen this before - so that they might feel more at ease.)

Peace and Grace, to you all! He Is Risen! And it makes a difference to me.
--Paul

Scientists Use 3D Printer to Create First “Printed” Human Vein

In the way cool category, I found this article on slashdot.org today. A couple notable exerpts:

3D Printing technology has recently leapt into a new realm — we’ve seen printers that can create entire buildings out of stone, delicious meals out of simple ingredients, and now — perhaps weirdest and coolest of them all — a printer that can build body parts from cells! Scientists working on the Organovo NovoGen printer recently created the first “printed” human vein. This technology could replace other toxic and carbon-heavy medicinal practices like using artificial parts in the human body.

If you're not familiar with 3D printers, they build up three-dimensional objects by laying down two-dimensional layers of the object. I've seen them make plastic prototype parts. The idea here is a leap forward where they use "bio-ink" to build up the right result instead of borrowing a vein from another part of your body. Will replacement organs becoming in a few years?

The Next 100 Years - Chapter 2 - Islamic Wars

George Friedman has a delightful look at the 21st century in his book The Next 100 Years. In last week's blog entry, I digested his intro and chapter 1 where I describe geopolitics (one of my fascinations), the rise of several unexpected powers (like Turkey? really?), and the American Age. This week we get to chapter 2 where he describes the US-Jihadist war (al Qaeda and company) and introduces five main points of the American grand strategy. The idea is that the Islamic wars ultimately won't make that big of a difference in the long run, especially when taken in context of the grand strategy.

And, as always, I expect to cover the main points, but seriously, Friedman takes almost 20 pages on this topic. I'm gonna have to leave you wanting more ... which is why I hope some of you will read the book, too.

Friedman starts off reminding us that people are talking about "the long war." Surely, tThe United States and the Islamic radicals will be at this all century - or longer! Won't they? But remember from last week that what appears to be a permanent state today might wind up looking like a passing phase 20 years from now. Think of how history saw the world change from 1900 to 1920 to 1940, etc.

Ultimately, al Qaeda fails in its goals. Has already failed, in fact. Sure, there'll continue to be more underwear bombings, but that's hardly a victory. "The United States has succeeded, not so much in winning the war as in preventing the Islamists from winning, and, from a geopolitical perspective, that is good enough." Back in 2001, al Qaeda's goal wasn't just to attack the US; it wanted to demonstrate America's weakness and al Qaeda's strength. That, in turn, would lead to undermining Islamic governments that relied on the US (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, on and on) and make the situation ripe for al Qaeda to come into power - and ultimately re-establish the Islamic empire of earlier centuries.

To understand what happens next, think about the last 20 years. The collapse of the Soviet Union dramatically destabilized several regions that had been frozen in place as part of the Cold War. The Soviets' collapse and withdrawal ("like a tide receding"), exposed underlying nations that hadn't been free for a century or more. They had no sense of self-government and, sometimes, no workable economy. At the same time, American interest withdrew since there was no longer any confrontation with the Soviets.

What did these newly freed societies do next? Think about how Yugoslavia exploded once they didn't have the Soviets forcing them to play nice to each other. Likewise, the game shifted for that Islamic region between Yugoslavia and Afghanistan. Think of other areas all along the underbelly of the former Soviet Union.

The turmoil of this Jihadist era winds up as "less a coherent movement than a regional spasm, the result of a force field being removed."  Divisions within the Islamic world will prevent them from stabilizing their base even if the US were to actually withdraw altogether.

The American Grand Strategy

Friedman speaks to a Grand Strategy. I'd hardly say this is some codified strategy. There's no document like the Constitution that outlines it. Well, not that I've ever heard of! But knowing these five points clears things up dramatically. For example, the US response to 9/11 maybe made little sense on the surface ... but in reality, it was exactly in keeping with this Grand Strategy. You can see this playing out in 2001. Likewise in the Cold War, or America's response to Japan in 1941 ... on and on.

In truth, all nations have some Grand Strategy, it's just that not all of them can actually achieve it. It's not always about war, but it is about the processes that constitute national power.

And the United States? Truth be told, the strategy often does involve war. Its Grand Strategy originated in fear. Think of the struggle to gain freedom. Or setting out in defense in the War of 1812 and suffering defeats and set-backs. "Nations are driven by the fear of losing what they have." Keep that in mind as you read these five points of the Grand Strategy:

1. The complete domination of North America by the United States Army
   The US probably wouldn't have survived as the 13 colonies on the eastern edge of North America. Expanding westward gained critical agriculture and trade power (think of the North American river system in light of this). Battles and wars were fought in part to defend this.
   
   
2. The elimination of any threat to the United States by any power in the Western Hemisphere
   South America isn't really a threat. The connection up through Panama isn't adequate for a real invasion, and South America is broken in half anyway. The main threats come from Mexico and the Caribbean. The Monroe Doctrine addresses this. There's a strategic imperative on preventing European powers from gaining footholds. And, if you may recall, the main time the US really worries about Latin America is when foreign powers have based there. Think Cuban Missile Crisis, for example.
   
   
3. Complete control of the maritime approaches to the United States by the navy in order to preclude any possibility of invasion
   "In 1812 the British navy sailed up the Chesapeake and burned Washington. Throughout the nineteenth century, the United States was terrified that the British, using their overwhelming control of the North Atlantic, would shut off its access to the ocean, strangling the United States." Again, multiple battles and wars were fought in the 19th century to address this. On the Pacific side, acquiring Alaska and Hawii saw to securing those sea lanes much more peacefully. The US finally secured the Atlantic during World War II. But the end of WWII, the US had such a huge navy that no power was able to operate in the Atlantic without US approval. The US was finally invulnerable to invasion.
   
   
4. Complete domination of the world's oceans to further secure US physical safety and guarantee control over the international trading system
   The US emerged from WWII with naval bases scattered all over the world ... as well as the world's largest navy. Think of how this changed things from the previous century. No other power has ever been able to do this. And, geopolitically speaking, this is the single most important fact in the world: The US controls the world's oceans and therefore the trade routes.
   
   
5. The prevention of any other nation from challenging US global naval power
   We see a carrot and a stick approach here. The US wants to continue holding control of the oceans. Remember, nations never want to lose what they have. The most direct route is to make sure no one else can build a substantial navy. The "carrot" side of things is making sure people don't need big navies. The US makes sure everyone has access to the seas. The "stick" is to wear out enemies in land confrontations so they have few resources left over for navy building.

That fifth strategy brings us back to the Eurasian area of the Islamicists. The US needs to make sure that no Eurasian power becomes secure enough that it diverts resources to building a navy. There's no longer any single threat of a total coalition there, so the US focuses on secondary, regional hegemons who might develop enough security to begin probing out to sea. "The United States, therefore, worked to create a continually shifting series of alliances designed to tie down any potential regional hegemon."

The US has to engage in regular and unpredictable interventions throughout that region. In the post-Soviet world of the early '90s, the US invaded Kuwait. Then followed Yugoslavia and Afghanistan ... all to prevent hegemons from forming in those regions. Rather than being about oil (a popular notion) or about expanding democracy (my own feeling) ... these things were driven more by the Grand Strategy. And, alarming as they were, they were nothing compared to the investment of resources and blood that went into World War II.

Now we get to a paradox: The ultimate goal of all these interventions isn't to achieve something but to prevent something. Ultimately, this will play out regardless of who's in power in the US. Any US President will wind up following this Grand Strategy because it in the national DNA. From Vietnam to Korea to Kosovo to the present, US policy throughout the 21st century may seem irrational, but since the primary goal will often be just to block or destabilize groups like al Qaeda, they'll be quite rational.

What next?

"The international system is now badly out of balance." The US is the single super-power. But the "natural tendency of the international system is to move to equilibrium." In such an unbalanced world, "smaller powers are at risk from larger, unchecked powers." The logically form coalitions so they can match strength. But coalitions tend to fall apart, and the US can be an "unforgiving giant."

So, we see this contradiction: "On the one hand, the United States is deeply resented and feared; on the other hand, individual nations still try to find a way to get along with the United States. ... This will be a dangerous century, especially for the rest of the world."

My own take on this now

There's a lot not to love about these impersonal geopolitical forces, but let's not fool ourselves and pretend they don't exist. I completely agree that the Jihadists can't win in the end, but I've also noticed a common mistake many folks make these days when they underestimate the power of religious fervor to inflame and unite. A lot of geopolitics assumes that nations will behave in their own best interests - politically, economically - but don't overlook religious interests which can be taken quite seriously by some folks. America saw a demonstration of this in Iraq when the Iraqis behaved ... oddly ... as part of being liberated. Lessons were learned and tactics were adjusted.

Still, looking forward I'll have to agree that the Jihadists eventually must fade from the world stage and become a memory. The intrinsic forces don't exist to keep them going for decade upon decade. Will they fade in the next several years? Maybe not ... but soon enough.

Watch the news then for this common theme: America will play out its fifth strategy over and over by muddling up alliances and preventing hegemons. Other nations will fear, scorn, and even hate the US. Internal US politics will make much ado over this response ... but it's inevitable and the main debate will have to be how to navigate it with integrity.

Up next: Chapter 3 - Population, Computers, and Culture Wars.

You can find more on The Next 100 Years at Random House. Author George Friedman is the chief intelligence officer and founder of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a private intelligence agency whose clients include foreign government agencies and Fortune 500 companies.

Cody – Thursday, July 17

Today we sampled the old and new west by hanging around Cody, WY. We hit the tourist shops, lunched at a local diner, watched a gunfight (of sorts), and took in the Cody Stampede Rodeo (voted best large outdoor PRCA rodeo).

The rodeo was the high point for me. You gotta admire the culture that starts its event with a Johnny Cash poem about the flag, the national anthem, and a prayer to God for safety for the competitors and the animals alike. Laura was the only one of us who had seen a rodeo before, and I think we all agreed it was a hoot! As with other things I’ve mentioned here, you can see these things in video, but it’s not the same as being there. On the way in, the kids tried their hand at lassoing a “sheep.” During the rodeo, it was striking to see the bucking broncos, the races, the young and old alike trying their best. I think my younger kids really enjoyed the Calf Scramble were they call down all the kids 12 and under (about 300 kids) to swarm and chase two calves with ribbons tied to their tails. The first two kids to bring ribbons to the rodeo clown got prizes.