The Next 100 Years - Chapter 1 - The Dawn of the American Age

"I have no crystal ball. I do, however, have a method that has served me well, imperfect though it might be, in understanding the past and anticipating the future." George Friedman makes several rational and compelling predictions for the 21st century in his book The Next 100 Years: In 2020, China fragments. In 2050, a global war between US, Turkey, Poland, and Japan (the new great powers). In 2080, space-based energy powers Earth. In 2100, Mexico challenges the U.S.

In this blog entry and several to follow, I'd like to digest some of the high points of Friedman's book. In fairness to the author, I don't intend to give away all the goodies but whet your appetite to actually get your hands on this enjoyable analysis that he's done.

First off, I don't think we get a prophetic road-map of the 21st century from Friedman here. But we do get insight into a way of viewing world events. Personally, I expect to take the near-term predictions to heart, and tuck away the longer-term as food for analysis when the events come around. Assuming I live that long!!

Friedman's purpose is to identify the major tendencies that define the major events. And he says that he'll "be delighted if [his] grandchildren, glancing at this book in 2100, have reason to say, 'Not half bad.'"

Geopolitics

First off, let me describe the concept of geopolitics. This is the idea that nations more or less have to behave certain ways just because of their geographic and political environment. For example, Britain had to become a huge naval power in recent centuries because it was an island nation. It also enjoyed some insulation from invasion due to the surrounding water. People that play the game of Risk understand this pretty well, too. A player with a power base in North America will adopt a different strategy than someone in Europe or Australia, and it all has to do with the way he has to defend his borders and the avenues he has to pursue his goals (i.e., world domination).

Get over the idea that Turkey couldn't be a major world power

Next, let me get you to let go of the notion that you the world as we see it today would only change slightly over the next decades. For example, you might scoff at the idea of Poland or Turkey being a major world power. Why not Russia? or China? But consider this (borrowing from Friedmans' early pages still), if you had lived in London in the year 1900, you would have viewed London as pretty much the capitol of the world. Europe was enjoying unprecedented prosperity. Serious people were claiming that war has become impossible given the interdependence of the financial markets.

Twenty years later in 1920, Europe had been torn apart by World War I, and Americans and Communists had vaulted into the scene, and the peace treaty had been imposed on Germany guaranteed that it would not soon reemerge.

Twenty years later in 1940, Germany had not only reemerged, but had conquered France and dominated Europe.

Get it? And likewise, by 1960 the world changed dramatically again. Or who in 1980 would have predicted the fall of Communism around 1989?

If we carry that forward, then it's not too hard to believe that typical observers today (i.e., you and I!) wouldn't naturally guess at just how weird things can change: "At a certain level, when it comes to the future, the only thing one can be sure of is that common sense will be wrong." But I do love to pick up some good tools for watching things unfold!

The American Age

Back in 1871, with the unification of Germany, you could have seen that eventually Germany would feel insecure trapped between Russia and France and would feel the need to redefine the systems. Looking at the 21st century, Friedman hunts for pivotal events for the century. After you clear away the debris of the European empires and the Soviet Union, the lone superpower remains the United States.

And on multiple levels, the US will continue to be the lone superpower. Economics continues to be the chief force. Controlling trade used to mean controlling the North Atlantic (hence the power of the European empires). Now it means controlling the Atlantic and the Pacific, and the US is the only country in a position to do that ... largely a result of its unique geographic position bordering both oceans, its stability, and its economic powerhouse.

The "no agenda" zone

Let me point out that Friedman doesn't try to strike an agenda here. Not that I can tell, anyway. America doesn't become beloved because of its power; more often, the response is fear. We'll see this non-agenda idea raise it head from time to time in the book. We might not like the nobility behind different events, we might not agree with the implications for our own favorite causes, but the events will probably develop and happen anyway due to the impersonal forces at work.

Coalitions and the US strategy

The 21st century will revolve around two opposing struggles: Secondary powers forming coalitions to contain/control the US, and the US acting preemptively to prevent effective coalitions from forming.

The Islamic wars of the last ten years are an example of a group of Muslims seeking to re-create a great Islamic empire. Inevitably, they felt the need to strike at the US and demonstrate their power. But the US responded by invading. However, it wasn't necessarily with a clear goal of victory. The US doesn't have to win; it just has to disrupt the coalition. Watch for that theme over and over again.

The next big conflict will be Russia (inevitably) trying to reassert power. And the US can't avoid trying to resist. In the end, Russia can't win.

China won't be the next big challenger because of its geopolitical position (there it is again). It's physically isolated (Siberia to the north, the Himalayas and jungles to the south). Its population is largely in the east. It lacks major naval power (expensive!). But the deciding factor really is that China is inherently unstable. Whenever it opens its borders for trade, the coastal regions prosper while the interior remains impoverished. Efforts to resolve this prove inefficient, and ultimately they close their borders again. We've seen this multiple times before. Think of Mao equalizing the wealth - or poverty, as it were.

The end of the population explosion

Friedman calls this the single most important fact of the 21st century. Europe and Japan are already demonstrating the pains of declining population. The US is turning the corner. Developing countries will peek and start to decline much later.

Watch for the US to change its attitude toward immigration in the next couple of decades as labor shortages create competition for workers. Watch for accelerated dependence on automation and robotics. And, interestingly enough, watch for the unintended consequences of those changes!

Where next?

In coming blog entries, I'll try to digest Friedman's deeper take on these deliciously swirling issues. The Jihadist wars, population, looking for geopolitical "fault lines," China, Russia, a coming crisis in 2030 (right on schedule! - you'll see), a global war around 2050 (but not so devastating), golden ages, and Mexico challenging the US for domination of North America around 2080.

There are quite a few implications for us commoners. I'm retiring around 2030, so I'm keenly interested in the crisis that Friedman's predicting. I have strong feelings about human rights in China. I have an opinion about how some economic realities will drive public opinion about marriage and family. I'm curious about the forces that would drive a war when my children are raising their families. I believe that God isn't a passive bystander ... so how will His will assert itself? As they say: Stay Tuned!

You can find more on The Next 100 Years at Random House. Author George Friedman is the chief intelligence officer and founder of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), a private intelligence agency whose clients include foreign government agencies and Fortune 500 companies.

Print this post